農業農村可持續發展綜合評價及城市化影響：以京津冀地區為例

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農業農村部環境保護科研監測所鄉村環境規劃與評價創新團隊在

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

雜誌發表題為“ A framework for assessing sustainable agriculture and rural development： A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region， China”的研究論文，提出了農業農村可持續發展概念框架，以京津冀地區為例，評價了區域農業農村可持續發展的綜合水平和系統耦合協調關係，探究了不同維度城市化對農業農村可持續發展的影響。

農業農村部環境保護科研監測所碩士研究生胡斯威和助理研究員楊琰瑛為論文共同第一作者，楊琰瑛助理研究員和師榮光研究員為論文共同通訊作者。研究受到國家自然科學基金（42001264）和中國農業科學院科技創新工程（2021-CXGC-SRG）的資助。

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Highlights

A conceptual framework is proposed to assess SARD。

High-value SARD areas were in the suburbs， whereas low-value areas in mountains and traditional agricultural areas。

Farmers’ well-being lagged agricultural production and rural environment。

Improper land expansion and industrial development during urbanization had negative impacts on SARD。

Abstract

The deterioration of the eco-environment and low well-being of farmers in rural areas have posed great challenges to the realization of sustainable development goals （SDGs）。 Coordination of food production， eco-environment， and farmers‘ well-being is a core issue in achieving the SDGs。 Here， a conceptual framework and corresponding evaluation index system composed of agricultural production， rural environment， and farmers’ well-being was introduced to measure the three dimensions of sustainable agriculture and rural development （SARD） and their coupling coordination in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） region， a region containing a highly developed urban agglomeration with a surrounding poverty belt。 The different impacts of urbanization on SARD were analyzed by geographically weighted regression。 Most of the low-value SARD areas were in the northwestern mountains with low agricultural production and southeastern traditional agricultural areas with a lagging rural environment， whereas the high-value SARD areas were mainly in the suburbs of big cities with high farmers‘ well-being。 Farmers’ well-being lagged agricultural production and rural environment in most of BTH。 Population urbanization had positive impacts on SARD， whereas improper land expansion and industrial development during urbanization had negative influences in rural areas。 It is suggested to introduce effective policies to increase farmers‘ well-being in remote mountainous and traditional agricultural areas and decrease the damage of inappropriate urban development to aid BTH and highly developed urban agglomerations in coordinating development and achieving SDGs。

農村生態環境退化和居民福祉落後給可持續發展目標的實現帶來了巨大挑戰。協調糧食生產、生態環境和農民福祉是實現可持續發展目標的核心問題。本文基於人地耦合系統理論提出了農業農村可持續發展概念框架，建立了由農業生產、農村環境和農民福祉構成的評價指標體系，測度了京津冀地區農業農村可持續發展（SARD）的綜合水平和系統間的耦合協調關係，透過地理加權迴歸分析探究了不同維度城市化對SARD的影響。

研究發現：（1）SARD高值區主要分佈在農民福祉表現較好的大城市郊區，而SARD低值區主要位於農業生產較低的西北部山區和農村環境滯後的東南部傳統農區；（2）京津冀大部分地區SARD子系統間的耦合協排程主要處於基本協調，且農民福祉滯後於農業生產和農村環境。中度失調的地區主要分佈在“環京津貧困帶”。（3）不同城市化維度（人口、土地、經濟）對京津冀地區SARD的影響不同。人口密度的影響最大，其次是人均GDP和城鎮人口比例，主要呈現正效應。城鎮建設用地比例、第二產業和第三產業比例對京津冀西部和南部具有一定的負效應。京津冀西南部SARD主要受到人口密度和人均GDP的驅動，中部地區主要受到城鎮人口比重的驅動，東北部主要受到建設用地佔比和第二三產業比重的驅動。建議制定有效政策，提高偏遠山區和傳統農區的農民福祉，減少不適當城市化對SARD的損害，以幫助京津冀和其他高度發達的城市群實現可持續發展目標。